熊傲君:脱欧协议终于达成!近五年闹剧宣告结束!
关键词:英国脱欧谈判,英国欧盟达成协议
导语:自2016年英国脱欧公投以来,持续多年的闹剧终于正式落下帷幕,在上周,英国和欧盟经过艰辛且漫长的谈判过程之后,双方终于达成脱欧协议。自此,英国正式完全脱离欧盟,过去已成为历史,不但摆脱了硬脱欧的风险,也会让未来的欧洲金融体系重新进入新阶段。
英欧协议带领英镑反攻
上周圣诞假期前,英国首相约翰逊在唐宁街首相府召开新闻发布会宣布,英国已经完成了脱欧,将于2021年1月1日起实现全面的政治和经济独立。该协议是双方签署的最大的双边贸易协议,涵盖2019年价值6680亿英镑的贸易。该协议对整个欧盟都是一个好的协议,将促进工作机会和繁荣。
消息一出,英镑随之出现大幅回升,创下一周高点,不过市场再次出现买预期卖事实的局面,很快就出现获利回吐的现象。再加上圣诞节假日的来临,同样会使得市场投资者选择离场观望,不过无论如何,脱欧终于结束之后,必然会使得欧洲地区,尤其是英国会在短期内放下包袱,重新把重心放到疫情和经济身上。
英国政策和未来仍存隐患
虽然英国脱欧已经结束,市场似乎已经放下了一块心头大石,但对于英国而言,绝对还没到安心的地步。除了现在由于疫情的变异导致内部非常混乱之外,迟迟无法出台的刺激计划也是令人忧虑,因为目前国内的经济受损程度已经比较严重,在英央行难有太大行动的情况下,刺激方案是较为关键的一步。
何况,虽然避免了双方贸易关系的彻底决裂,但英国仍将面临二战以来发达经济体对外商贸关系的最大一次重置。未来几个月英国还将面临着苏格兰寻求独立的问题,这也可能决定英国的未来方向,一旦苏格兰独立成功,那么未来也会有多次相关的贸易谈判,可见英国的未来依然任重而道远。
不管怎么说,我们作为市场投资者,也可以说看着英国脱欧到持续多年的谈判,现在终于出了结果,也算是有始有终,同时市场的风险也有所减低。回到黄金身上,虽然脱欧的结果对金价的影响有限,但如果英镑逐渐回归上升趋势,那么美元势必会继续走弱,黄金或许也能蹭到一点利好作用。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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