熊傲君：现货黄金冲击千八失败，今年还有机会吗？
关键词：现货黄金走势，金价多空争夺
导语：在本周出，金价开盘后保持强劲势头，不但成功突破年内的高位，同时刷新自2012年以来的新高，到达1780一线附近。眼看1800关口近在咫尺之际，现货黄金却无法延续冲高，随后大幅回落1750附近，在今年长时间高位震荡的情况下，迟迟未能进一步上行，是否预示着1800大关难以逾越？
经济活动正在逐步回暖
随着各国的解封，目前全球的经济活动都正在逐步复苏，随着经济活动的进一步回暖，市场的避险需求将更加减弱，这会在后期对金价造成一定的施压。不过现阶段的继续暂时还不够明显，包括的美国的就业市场依然疲软，所以未来还要关注经济的改善情况而定，而且也会刺激黄金一定的工业需求。
二次疫情爆发忧虑高企
虽然与此前相比，目前疫情有一定的好转，但也只针对于亚洲大部分地区和欧洲地区，而事实上美国目前仍然在不断增加人数，加上近期恶化明显的南美地区，这使得二次疫情大规模爆发的可能性在上升，可能要等到疫苗出来后才能根本上解决。一旦出现第二轮爆发，全球经济活动会重新关闭，这无疑会让金价收益。
持续宽松政策保持利好
对于黄金今年而言，实际上还有较多的利好消息，所以尚不能说冲击1800已经没希望，毕竟才刚过去了上半年，至少持续的宽松货币政策预计要保持到年底，而且可能未来还会有更多的刺激手段出炉。除此之外，目前地缘政治也陷入了紧张的阶段，包括中东地区和中印交锋，以及不断恶化的欧美贸易摩擦，还有不确定的年底美国大选，这都会是金价下一次调整1800的契机。
因此，尽管今次尝试冲击1800的过程中失败，但个人认为现在下结论还是为时尚早，何况目前多方因素明显还是压空方一头，加上目前已经形成牛市趋势的情况下，即使未来要调整，恐怕空间也是相对有限。当然，下半年我们还要关注更多的消息而定，操作上顺应趋势即可。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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