王垣鑫：奥运会推迟重创日本经济，金价收复失地或仍需时日
现货黄金昨日亚盘开盘后延续反弹走势，虽然在欧盘前有所回落但随后迅速走高，涨势一直延续至今日亚盘开盘，整体涨幅达84美元，今日亚盘开盘后出现30美元幅度回落，但整体仍交投于1600美元/盎司一线上方，另外金价这一轮反弹过程总幅度已经达到190美元，已经收回自1700上方回落的过半失地。
东京奥运会推迟举办
据最新消息显示，国际奥委会和日本首相安倍晋三同意不取消奥运会，随即国际奥委会与东京奥组委发表联合声明，确认东京2020奥运会将推迟至2021年举办，意味着在现代奥林匹克124年的历史中，本届东京奥运会成为首届在和平年代未能如期举办的奥运会，也是受公共卫生事件冲击而影响的全球最大活动。
推迟举办奥运会对已经为此准备了7年时间的日本造成了巨大的经济损失。有报道称延期举办带来的直接经济损失将超过3万亿日元，导致市场担忧情绪加剧，加之隔夜欧美股市大涨，道指暴力拉升逾11%，削弱日元避险买需，美元兑日元后市料有进一步上升空间。
现货黄金暴力反弹
本周两个交易日金价持续大幅反弹，仅两天反弹幅度已经达到140美元，本轮反弹一方面由于美元指数放缓涨势出现高位回落，另一方面市场不确定性和持续的流动性注入亦提振金价。
日内由于支撑均线仍未到位，导致反弹走势有所放缓，虽然日线级别方面macd指标已经出现金叉信号，但kdkj指标走高，配合价格与均线的乖离，价格超买或有回调需求；另外周线级别方面macd指标正处于顶背离状态当中，价格若想直接拉高突破高点仍缺少了ma5均线的支撑，料短时间内仍将出现反复过程，先留意1600一线防守情况。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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