王垣鑫：1560一线压力效果良好，现货黄金持续宽幅震荡
昨日亚盘金价震荡走高，欧盘开盘后主要以回踩为主，随后于1641美元/盎司一线找到支撑美盘重新走强并一度接近1660美元/盎司一线位置，但从大田环球现货黄金盘面上可以看到最终并未能成功突破，凌晨开启回落并收回昨日所有反弹幅度，亚盘开盘后窄幅震荡，今日现货黄金行情整体仍交投于宽幅震荡区间内。
美联储降息概率飙升
周四交易商预计美联储最早下个月开始降息的可能性一度超过70%，并料在9月前可能大幅降息75个基点。这将使短期目标利率自2017年以来首次降至1%以下。值得一提的是周三交易商认为3月份降息的可能性只有33%，而根据周五美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储3月份降息的概率已经飙升至88%，利率期货也显示美联储年内将降息三次。
有别于许多其他央行，美联储仍有降息的空间，尽管联储决策者称在去年降息三次后，经济数据出现实质性变化是他们在采取进一步行动前希望看到的，但与此同时他们也警告说，应对经济冲击的任何措施在通胀已经很低的情况下都可能需要加大力度才能产生效果。
现货黄金持续震荡
前两日金价曾两度测试1625美元/盎司一线支撑，但未能成功下破，随后开启反弹有形成双底形态迹象，但昨日晚间上攻1660美元/盎司一线失败，金价再度回落收回日内反弹幅度，目前金价整体仍处于1635-1660宽幅震荡区间内。
日线级别方面ma5均线被跌破，短时间内有拐头形成压力迹象，但下方ma10均线支撑效果暂时良好，金价波动幅度被局限于ma5压力及ma10支撑之间，日内建议先继续关注这两条均线，即1635-1650区间的支撑压力效果。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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