王垣鑫：整数关口抵抗异常激烈，后市关注头肩顶形态
金价自前段时间回踩1480美元/盎司一线后持续反弹，本周初更是一度站上周线ma5压力均线上方，据大田环球贵金属现货黄金盘面报价显示，截止目前本周最高价位为1535.5美元/盎司，高出周线均线压力近28美元，但随后特朗普弹劾下台所引发的避险情绪有所降温，加之美元指数持续走高，美联储官员态度有所转硬，金价一晚间大幅下挫重回1500美元/盎司整数关口争夺，目前正交投于1500-1510震荡区间内。
年内降息成谜助推美元走强
自上一季度美元指数一轮下滑后直至目前一直维持在震荡上扬的过程当中，虽目前整体上扬的速度与幅度较上一年年初低位反弹开启时大幅放缓，但整体趋势依然强劲，年内剩余时间美联储降息计划或已结束的预期更是给美元指数的走强狠狠助推了一把，经济方面美国商业投资收缩幅度大于此前第二季度的估计，企业利润增长不温不火，给经济蒙上了一层阴影，金融市场对衰退的担忧正在笼罩着经济。疲弱的企业支出和不温不火的利润增长可能会让人怀疑消费者是否有能力继续推动经济增长。美国上半年经济增速为2.6%。
随着美国税改和政府大举支出影响的消退，美国经济在很大程度上正失去动能，经济学家预计美国今年经济增速为2.5%左右，低于特朗普政府3%的目标。投资者关注点从弹劾调查转向长期前景，人们需要回到基本面，但基本面并不利于继续推动美元走高，进而也会限制金价进一步走低。
多空聚焦1500整数关口
现货黄金方面虽然短时间内仍在1500整数关口附近争夺，但从大级别上来看，整体头肩顶形态的雏形已经出现，目前正处于右肩位置，若后市金价进一步承压并跌破1480美元/盎司一线位置，将跌破头肩顶形态颈线，后市或将进一步往1400-1430区间回落。短时间内先关注1500-1510区间突破情况，虽短时间内受避险情绪降温影响，金价有所回落但1500整数关口支撑效果强劲，有机会支撑价格结束周线级别回调过程并重新打开新一轮上行走势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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