王垣鑫：黄金回调走势有望开启
9月9日当周现货黄金继续收低，据大田环球贵金属现货黄金盘面报价显示，上周金价于1506美元/盎司一线，周中最高一度反弹至1524美元/盎司位置附近，但并未能有效站稳，后市继续大幅度回落，最后收于1486美元/盎司附近，整体呈现冲高回落走势。
市场关注下周美联储利率决议
整体而言美国消费水平仍极为强劲，可能给予美联储暂停加息步伐的空间，美联储9月再度降息几乎为板上钉钉之势，但美联储主席鲍威尔可能将后续降息推迟至10月之后。前美联储主席耶伦表示，美国的经济是健康的，但她重申了上月的警告，承认美国经济衰退的可能性有所增加，但认为衰退不会到来。
另外美国8月零售销售向好，且前值上修 周五美国商务部公布数据显示，美国8月零售销售强于预期，且前值得以上修。整体而言，美国消费水平仍极为强劲，可能给予美联储暂停加息步伐的空间。耶伦表示，美联储有望推动通胀达到2%的目标，不过对持续疲软的物价压力持谨慎态度。关于美联储应该将利率降至零或负值以为国债融资的想法是一个“长期被否定”的概念。
周线回调或将开启
从技术面上看，金价跌破此前一直依靠的ma5均线支撑持续了连续两周的时间，ma5均线亦开始向下拐头形成压力，失去支撑力度后合并kdj指标三线的高位回落，价格有望从高位开启回调，整一波上涨幅度从1266美元/盎司一线开始到1557美元/盎司，幅度达到291美元，后市回调或将有机会回踩1410美元/盎司甚至前两年高点1375美元/盎司一线位置。
但需要注意一点，虽然连续两周跌破ma5均线支撑，但ma5是否能成功向下拐头形成压力仍是未知之数，需要再经过一周时间的观察，若下周金价继续走低，价格收盘价低于周线ma10则可视为回调开启的确认信号，后市可以周线级别ma5的均线压力附近位置作为进场参考。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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