王垣鑫：趋势变幻现货黄金或面临深度回调
现货黄金自1346美元/盎司一线承压大幅回落后，于1281美元/盎司附近受支撑出现反弹，在随后长达19个交易日的时间内，金价一直维持着震荡反弹的走势，日线级别ma5均线和ma10均线为价格提供稳定的支撑效果，加之3月份美联储利率决议再度释放鸽派信号，市场对于今年美联储暂缓加息步伐甚至降息的预期快速升温，金价一度反弹回1324美元/盎司一线，但近日金价的反弹出现的终结甚至有延续回落的迹象。
日线均线支撑遭长阴突破
在此前长达19个交易日的时间内，日线级别ma5均线和ma10均线一直为金价提供稳定的支撑，但在3月28日的时候金价出现大幅度破低下行走势，从日线看当日最大跌幅一度达到22美元/盎司，以大实体阴线的形态一举下破日线ma5均线及ma10均线的支撑，随后两个交易日内并未出现明显反弹意愿，macd指标双线出现死叉，ma5均线向下拐头形成压力，形态上亦出现了三线变盘向下的信号，后市日线级别趋势转向空方的概率较大。
时机已过多方错失变盘窗口
3月28日的大跌不光让日线级别更加让周线级别多方在近期的努力付诸东流，从周线级别看，金价早在2月24号当周出现了大幅度回落，直接跌穿了5周线以及10周线的均线支撑，让5周线出现了向下拐头形成压力的情况，同时macd指标快线亦开始回头，但随后三周时间内，金价探低回升站回5周线之上。
虽然让5周线重新向上拐头形成支撑最快仍需要大约两周的时间，但对于多方来讲仍是喜闻乐见的情况。不过本轮的大跌让金价重新跌回并未变回支撑的5周线底下承压，macd指标双线也趁此机会形成了死叉，可以说是基本断绝了短期内金价重新回归多头的希望。
后市短期内或将维持弱势
在目前金价趋势发生转变的情况底下，未来短时间内金价或将维持弱势，建议关注日线级别以及周线级别ma5均线压力状况，现货黄金有机会完成此前所未能完成的调整往1270一线甚至1250一线回踩，短期内高空为主低多为辅或将是更加适应行情节奏的操作方式，起码在价格重新回到5周线之上，并且5周线重新向上拐头形成支撑之后，现货黄金才有机会开启新一轮涨势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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