王垣鑫：现货黄金面临关键时间点
今年以来现货黄金在一路冲高至1347美元/盎司一线后出现多重顶背离信号，随机金价开启快速回落走势，近期日线更是连续7天收出了阴线实体，随着kdj指标三线的走低，近两天金价出现了波动幅度变窄的迹象，远在1300上方的ma5均线压力也随着时间的推移来到了金价的上方，延续钝化下行走势还是反弹调整？料今明两天时间内金价将给出答案。
波幅收窄趋势蓄势待发
在经历了1327美元/盎司到1283美元/盎司近44美元幅度的回落后，近两天金价将跌势放缓，行情暂且保持大致1383-1389区间的窄幅震荡，一旦行情步入震荡阶段，后市短时间方向基本与原趋势方向无关，只与行情的突破方向有关，我们可以将震荡视为储蓄能量的过程，一旦行情出现突破，将会把这段时间储蓄的能量发散出去，造成短时间方向有机会与原趋势方向相反的局面。
压力决定回落是否延续
日线级别目前价格仍处于ma5压力之下，macd指标双线依旧处于开口下行的状态，但kdj指标三线走低，j线更是在0下方运行达数天之久，这表明日线级别目前处于钝化下行走势当中，价格将依照ma5提供的压力效果进行下移，现阶段ma5已至金价上方，后市金价面临的只有两个选择，要不打破ma5的压制进行回调，要不继续承压下行，由于ma5已经到位，后市方向料将在今明两天内决出。
市场聚焦美联储官员讲话
美国的加息进程作为近几年的热点无时无刻不在影响的现货黄金的走向，利率在经过数次的提升后目前已经达到了2.25%-2.5%的水平，但进入了2019年后来势汹汹的加息热度似乎发生了转变，市场对美联储暂缓加息甚至被迫降息的预期大增，而美联储主席鲍威尔放出需保持耐心的言论，更是显得鸽声大作，但今年这个加息的实际情况如何可能更多的需要从票委方面的态度来进行揣测，因此晚间美联储永久票委威廉姆斯的讲话或将成为行情的引爆点，此外还有美联储公布的经济褐皮书亦是需要关注。
后市金价突破上方建议重点关注1298-1302区间压力，此前金价上涨过程当中此区间支撑压力转换迹象明显，后市再度触碰或将对金价产生明显压力效果；下方重点留意1276-1280区间支撑，此为左侧一轮上行走势的起涨区间，当行情跌回起涨位置附近时，有机会顺着起涨点的支撑效果做出一波反弹，或将成为金价真正调整的契机。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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