王垣鑫：回调初现多头需谨慎
金价从1160美元/盎司一线反弹以来一直保持震荡上行走势，随着时间的推移1h级别，4h级别以及日线级别甚至周线级别已经在近期通通出现了超买钝化情况，但金价多头却不为所动，甚至前几天金价还从1322美元/盎司一线一举反弹20多美元，重新回到了1347美元/盎司一线，基本收复了去年4月开始的实体跌幅，但也从这是开始金价有了高位回调的迹象。
长时间回调过程或将到来
4h级别macd指标双线已经运行至高位，伴随着昨天金价的高位回落走势，macd指标双线已经隐隐有了死叉的迹象，通过翻查历史行情我们可以发现，一旦macd指标双线运行至一定高度做出死叉，那么这个死叉将会持续相当一段时间，在这段时间内金价多头或将受到持续的压制。
另外前段时间4h级别kdj指标一直处于超买区间横向运行，金价顺着ma5的支撑一路阴涨，此为钝化上行走势，这种情况有一个比较明显的特征就是以ma5为重要支撑，一旦跌破则将破坏整波钝化上行走势，而目前ma5不光被突破而且向下拐头形成了压力，回调走势有望开启。
收复失地调整或在即
周线级别上看，从去年4月份开始金价出现了一波幅度达200美元以上的下跌趋势，在经过历时4个多月的反弹过程后，终于将跌幅基本收了回来，但从历史行情中我们可以发现，左侧起跌点是具有压力效果的，而当右侧行情收复完跌幅来到左侧起跌区间时，也往往会因为承压而出现或多或少的回调，本次或也不会例外，加上周线kdj指标超买已久的情况，未来短时间内金价或将有机会开启一轮周线级别的回调过程。
但在周线级别回调来临之前，金价空头仍需经过日线ma5以及周线ma5支撑的考验，毕竟ma5为小趋势的重要支撑均线，日线跌破ma5日线级别才有可能开启回调走势，日线开启回调走势后，才有机会止住周线上升势头从而向下攻击周线ma5，因此最终可以以周线ma5的突破作为周线回调开启的信号，届时高位多单建议先离场观望，重点留意1290-1296区间支撑效果，若突破则将大脚踩向1270一线。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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