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王垣鑫:南美大豆或将替代美国大豆

自中美贸易摩擦开端后已经过去了一段时间,在一开始协商发表联合声明后,特朗普出尔反尔认为对此结果并不满意,执意开启争端,随后宣布对多个国家加征关税,中国亦公布出一份对原产于美国的659项约500亿美元进口商品加征25%的关税的清单,其中包括农产品、汽车、水产品等545项约340亿美元的商品,但在此环境底下,影响似乎并未过大。

中储粮集团公司相关负责人表示,在进口贸易的时机操作中,采购方拥有着货源地选择权,一般会更倾向于选择贸易关系良好、有稳定政策预期以及进口税率更低的生产国,因此在近两年的时间内,公司已经主动调整进口来源,以求降低进口来源过度集中而带来的风险,到目前为止已经形成了稳定成熟的多元化国际贸易渠道。在2017年时,进口的大豆26.2%来源于巴西,43.2%来源于阿根廷和乌拉圭,30.6%来源于美国。

这位负责人还表示,近期,中储粮集团公司紧密跟踪中美贸易摩擦相关情况,坚决执行国家对外贸易政策。自今年4月以来,中储粮未再新采购美国大豆,转而全部采购以巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭为主的南美大豆。

大田环球贵金属留意到根据中国海关统计,我国大豆进口来源呈现多元化趋势,南美大豆供给占比超过美国。2016—2017年度,我国大豆进口量9349万吨,其中巴西4534万吨,占48.5%,较三年前增加1.7个百分点;美国3684万吨,占39.4%,较三年前下降1个百分点。以南美为主的非美大豆进口已经占到我国大豆进口量的六成以上,且呈稳定增长趋势。未来,南美将越来越成为我国进口大豆供应的主力地区。


本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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