王垣鑫：美指大回撤黄金趁机反攻
现货黄金昨日开于1302.6美元/盎司，收于1301.8美元/盎司，日内最高上行至1304.5美元/盎司，最低下探至1295.7美元/盎司，昨日金价出现短时间下跌过程，但下方ma10支撑依旧有效，金价受支撑出现反弹，最终录得长下影十字星。
黄金昨日触底反弹主要得益于美元指数的回落，大田环球贵金属留意到，周三美指高位持续下挫近百点，因欧元区主要国家经济数据大幅好于预期致使欧银有望释放鹰派信号，加之意大利组阁风波利空暂时消化，欧元多头趁势反击。而美指由于通胀、经济意外放缓等原因引发了市场对美联储年内3次及以上加息的担忧。
在欧元兑美元迎来一波上涨后，紧接着周三纽盘时段，加拿大利率决议声明中删除了关于谨慎货币政策的言论，美元兑加元开启了第二轮的暴跌。未来需关注美国与欧盟、加拿大的贸易关系，和今晚美国两位票委官员的讲话，技术上美指有转空迹象。
欧元之所以出现报复性反弹主要是因为欧元区的经济火车头德国5月CPI年率初值远超预期录得为2.2%，创下自2017年2月以来增长，超过了欧洲央行2%的通胀目标。作为前瞻性指标，一定程度上缓解了人们对于欧元区经济在2017年底触顶的担忧。另外，法国的一季度年率亦出现上修。
有分析称，劳动力市场的趋紧是发生这一个改变的关键因素，德国的失业率近一步下滑至5.2%，创纪录新低，是1990年东西德统一以来最低水平。薪资增速的温和上涨以及季节性因素消散使得失业率再度走低提高了当地人民可支配收入，同时近阶段暴涨的油价亦推动了工业成本的提高，内外部环境的双重影响致使欧元区主要国家通胀回升明显、经济也出现改观。
大田环球贵金属分析师王垣鑫认为，美元在前段时间的下跌过程当中，95.148为明显反弹高点，若说美元指数最有可能出现大回调的位置，我看好在这里，而且之前也说过黄金能否出现幅度较大的反弹，就要看美元指数能不能出现大回调，目前美指日线已经跌破ma5支撑，若后市能继续等ma5拐头形成压力，则有进一步回调的可能性，在此之前黄金追多者仍需谨慎，关注上方1306-1307周线反压位置。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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