熊傲君：央行决议周，市场将受轮番考验
2018.03.19黄金策略
上周回顾：上周金价总体呈现震荡偏弱，受美联储本周加息影响，金价持续受压下压，不过总体幅度不大，以震荡下移区间为主，上周周初反复在1315-1325区间震荡，其后有过小幅上移区间1320-1330，不过周四周五再次受压下行，最终周五一度下跌至1310附近，再次呈现回落至前期低点一线，直至后半夜才有止跌迹象，今日早盘金价围绕1310-1314区间窄幅震荡中，预料周初整体金价表现仍是震荡偏弱。
消息面：上周尾数据有限，不过仅有的两个美国经济继续表现强劲，短期给到金价进一步施压。本周才是焦点，世界各大央行将举行利率决议，其中最为重点的美国加息将会在北京时间凌晨发生，市场各界普遍认为美联储本周加息在若无意外的情况下，已经是大概率事件，这便推动此前一度持续承压的美元绝地逢生。同时，全球范围内纷乱的地缘政局，及由美国总统特朗普挑起的贸易战争战火可能越烧越烈。
今日展望：现阶段金价下移一个震荡区间，所以目前建议先关注1310-1320区间状况，更短期的欧盘关注1315一线压力，因为此处也是上周五下破后的顶底转换处，若1310今日进一步失守，后市则有望跌至1300一线大关，加上美联储加息在即，在此之前，恐怕金价多头难以抬升，不过中长线角度考虑，上方空间仍是较大，因此尚不必担心，加息利空散尽后才是真正的良机。短线今日建议以1310-1320高抛低吸为上，配合欧盘破位跟进。
从现货黄金4小时图看：金价目前以震荡为主，呈现偏弱下行，现阶段均线组呈现空头排列向下施压，MACD指标死叉下穿0轴，皆是现时较为弱势的体现，近段时间欧美两者联系变弱，相信是由于夏令时尚未充分交替，市场存在不适，再加上消息利空条件居多以及砸盘现象较为常见，所以操作上还应较为谨慎，建议日内还是逢高做空为主，低多为辅结合。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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