熊傲君：趋势未改，宁死于多头
2018.02.06黄金策略
昨日回顾：正如昨天的策略告诉给大家，非农利空又如何，下跌不延续是弱势吗？绝对不是！何况昨天的欧盘还走强了，所以我不认为多头已死，空头要大跌这些结论是可以定下的，上周众多消息利空，金价下跌的力度，美元反弹的力度都不大，这就是空头吗？上周非农大利空依旧没有跌穿1325一线支撑，昨日更是站稳1330上方，后市最高抵达1341附近，所以不要觉得早上的大涨完全因为是避险，当然是占了不少功劳，但是技术面也根本没有告诉我们已经涨完，完全说是避险只是一厢情愿罢了。
消息面：昨日数据上并不多，有几个无关紧要的美国数据影响力一般，不过昨日是美联储新任主席的上台，北京时间22:00，美联储新掌门人鲍威尔将宣誓就职，标志着美联储将正式进入鲍威尔时代。鲍威尔将面临两大棘手难题：一是特朗普的经济刺激计划有可能引发经济过热，如果鲍威尔对加息时机拿捏不准，保持与此前一样缓慢的加息步伐，恐将难以消除经济过热的风险。二是鲍威尔接下来或将倾向于给美国银行业“松绑”，但如果美国金融监管过度放松，有可能会演变成一只“黑天鹅”，并引发经济危机。早间传出美国政府可能面临再度关门，再加上全球股市出现暴跌，避险情绪一度升温也导致早间避险产品的上升。
今日展望：金价重回1340上方，早间基本把非农的跌幅补完，呈现小幅弧形底型反转之势，若能在欧盘确认站稳，那么多头无疑会继续发力，向1350一线再次靠拢，由于早间大起大落，也算是急涨，亚盘急涨宜等待欧盘强弱判断，所以也不用操作过急，但是要记住目前还是多头格局，只是不要去追多，不代表做不了多就要做空，高空点位也要看时间，要么欧盘走弱破位1335，要么晚间美盘后半段不破高，所以没有必然可以做空的点位，现在还不是空头，之前也跟大家提过，哪怕到了1310也不是空头，跌两天不代表什么，记住做的是趋势，做的是大局才会有进步。
从现货黄金1小时图看：由昨日开始金价慢慢震荡上行，低点有所攀升并且早间抵到非农起跌点1345一线附近，现阶段均线组呈现多头排列，短期级别图再次呈现走强，日内还有望继续保持走高之势，当然也要留意欧盘能否守住支撑，另外避险带来的多头能否稳定也是非常重要，操作上建议暂时关注区间1335-1345，短线关注1340支撑能否站稳，一旦破位1345，金价将重拾涨势，届时恐一发不可收！
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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