王垣鑫:周末逆天跳涨黄金多头即将到位?
上周在文章内提及过,现货黄金价格上方主要压力来源于上年末特朗普大选所炒出来的高点1337美元/盎司一线,如今在非农利多周五晚间站稳后,周末休市期间避险情绪再次发酵,周一开盘金价直接跳空高开直接冲击1337美元/盎司一线后精准承压,这种点位出现在周一开盘只能说是早起的鸟儿有虫吃,谁起得早谁看到做进去了就赚到了。
从现在的情况来看,日线是大幅的跳空高开,周线亦是如此,日线开盘价距离MA5有13美元的距离,周线开盘价距离MA5有30美元的距离,首先从日线上来讲,如此大幅度的跳空高开,在远离MA5的时候一般情况底下难以进一步打开上方空间,加之今日美盘劳动节提前休市,日内恐难有大幅波动,因此看今日日线直接回踩MA5做调整的可能性也是非常小,因此日内暂看金价保持高位横盘整理,整体区间暂时参考1330-1340。
从周线上看情况跟日线大致相似,跳空高开远离MA5,之前已经跟大家讲过任何的上涨和下跌行情都是基于MA5的支撑或是压力去走的,当周线走成现在这个样子首先需要警醒一点,盲目追涨在这种情况底下是不可行的,技术面上现阶段是看调整的,除非消息面上的刺激如地缘政治因素方面,提振避险情绪可令行情短时间内再往上拉,但若要从技术面上走稳上行,需要MA5的上移,另外在21号当周将公布美联储9月议息会议结果,距今有2周的时间,远的不说下方1300也就是周线MA5的地方在议息会议结果公布前个人看好能支撑住,至于多头在收复上年11月以来的跌幅后是否已经到位,个人认为消息面上主要关注9月美联储议息会议给出的方向:
若议息会议结果给出利多而这两周没有明显回落的话,后市有望上探1357-1367区间;
若议息会议结果给出利空而这两周没有明显回落的话,后市回踩1300,关注日线MA20支撑,撑住多头仍有机会,撑不住则开启日线回调;
若议息会议结果给出利多而这两周有明显回落过程的话,后市有望从新开启新一轮上涨攻势往上年高点1375美元/盎司一线看;
若议息会议结果给出利多而这两周有明显回落过程的话,后市则进一步打开下行空间至1240-1250区间。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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