圣路易斯储局：2016年底美国利率看4%
关键字：圣路易斯储局、美国利率
圣路易斯联邦储备银行(St. Louis Fed)总裁James Bullard 27日说美国通膨上扬时联储局(FED)才会升息。问题是，如果通膨是由粮食价格(大粮仓加州正在闹旱灾)所拉动(而非薪资)，届时FED还会坚持升息吗？Thomson Reuters 27日报导，Bullard在受访时指出，美国目前的通膨非常低、但今年内可望回升至目标(2%)水平。他说，FED察觉泡沫的能力已经显著提升、目前并无任何类似像过去科技股、房市泡沫的迹象，反倒是中国房市令他感到忧心。Bullard并且表示他并不赞成FED将通膨目标由2%调高至4%。Bullard在受访时还提到，FED应该从明年第1季开始升息、目标是在2016年底让联邦基金利率(目前为0-0.25%)回升至正常水平(4-4.25%)。根据FED在上周公布的预估值，仅有一位决策官员认为联邦基金利率应该在2016年底升至4.25%、另有一位认为应该升至4.0%；多数认为不应超过3%。美国短期利率期货交易价格显示，目前投资人多数预期2006年以来首次的升息将会是落在2015年6月。美国投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute，ICI)26日发布的统计数据显示，截至2014年3月19日为止当周美国股票型基金净失血38.1亿美元、创去年12月初以来最大流出金额。
英国金融时报报导，国际清算银行(Bank of International Settlements；简称BIS；俗称「央行的央行」)经济学家日前指出，全球四大央行提出的利率前瞻指引可能危及全球金融体系，投资人可能会误以为央行将会预告升息时点、让他们有充足时间可以调整投资组合内容。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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