摩根士丹利：美联储决议后 美元或存上行风险
关键字：美联储决议、美元
美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将于北京时间周四03:00发布利率决议并发布政策声明，声明内容通常涉及基准利率、利率指导、每月资产购置和美国经济前景等诸多范畴。
市场将关注美联储是否将宣布进一步削减QE规模100亿美元至650亿美元。同时随着失业率快速下降，美联储是否将修改前瞻性指引。进一步缩减购债的举动意味着，美联储认为经济复苏强度已足够，并将继续稳步退出量化宽松举措(QE)，此类立场将有助美元资产前景
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)提醒投资者注意美元的上行风险。
该行在最新的研报中写道：随着美联储公布利率决议进入倒计时，部分市场参与者开始对美联储或增强前瞻性指引进行投机。这一因素令美元此前在一定程度上受到压制。
该行表示，“除预计美联储将调整削减购债步伐外，市场对美联储将上调升息门槛的预期也有所上升，目前该升息门槛为失业率降至6.5%；特别是在美国近期公布的就业数据喜忧参半的情况下。”
但摩根士丹利指出，“我们的经济学家团队认为，美联储不再强调该前瞻性指引的概率要高于设定更严苛指引的概率。”因而总体而言，该行仍看好美元在美联储决议期间及本周剩余时间的表现。
摩根士丹利预计，“市场或将美联储决议内容视为对前瞻性指引的弱化，从而对美元构成支撑。而紧接着美国GDP数据的公布，市场焦点将转向美国与其他国家间的经济增长差异，该因素也将推高美元上行概率。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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