席勒:美房市开始吹泡泡,房价可能一路涨到2018年
关键字：美国房市泡沫
2013年新科诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一、2005年领先在《Barron`s》周报发布美国房市泡沫预警的耶鲁大学知名经济学教授席勒(Robert Shiller)表示,美国房市目前可能正处于另一个泡沫的初期阶段。
CNBC 12月31日报导,席勒在接受专访时指出,许多人认为美国房地产开始复苏,带动房市动能走强,目前似乎正位处另一个泡沫的开端。他说,期货市场预估,房价可能会一路涨到2018年,因此房地产还有继续复苏的空间,但本次的上扬力道可能会较为疲弱。联准会(FED)宣布减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)已让美国10年期公债殖利率突破3%,房贷利率也可能随之攀高,这恐减弱房市反弹的力道。
席勒认为,房地产趋势有了结构性的转变,人们对大房子(尤其是远离市中心的房产)似乎已没过去那么热衷,这可能是受到金融海啸的影响。他表示,美国现在逐渐兴起一股都市化风潮,人们比以往更有意愿居住在都市里。
美国房价自从2012年年初开始便持续走升,为经济复苏添柴火。标准普尔的S&P/Case-Shiller住房价格指数显示,美国20大城市房价持续上扬,2013年10月份年增幅更是高达13.6%,创下7年以来新高。据彭博社调查,经济学家原预估房价指数将成长10.5%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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