高盛：美联储不会于12月减码
关键字：美联储缩减量宽购债规模
高盛分析师David Mericle给出美联储在12月18日FOMC会议上不会缩减QE的三大理由：
1. 经济数据：自10月以来美国经济数据好坏参半。其中最强劲的要数每月非农就业增长人数在20万以上这一趋势。不过，我们预计美联储官员将明显增加通胀的考量，通胀数据近几个月进一步回落。
2. 沟通：我们继续认为增强的前瞻指引将抵消缩减QE，但我们怀疑FOMC已准备采取该举措。尽管目前市场普遍预期美联储最终会加强，或澄明前瞻指引，但10月会议纪要和近期美联储的评论表明，在应该采取何种形式上，美联储几乎没有达成共识。
3. 预期：共识预期美联储12月缩减QE的可能性增大，但这依然是少数人的观点。但因为美联储官员不愿给市场带来“鹰派的”意外，这可能收紧金融环境，引发市场对美联储通胀目标承诺的怀疑，因此我们认为美联储12月行动的可能性很低。
Mericle预计，美联储将在明年3月开始缩减QE，而明年1月也有可能行动。
关于12月FOMC会议，他写道：“我们预计美联储将略微改变经济预期。鉴于近期数据，美联储很可能下调通胀和失业率预期，小幅上调经济增长预期。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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