日圆先生：FED缩减QE对美日汇率影响不大
关键字：fed、QE、美元汇率
NQN(Nikkei Quick News)26日报导,素有“日圆先生”名号的前日本财务省财务官、现任青山学院大学教授神原英资(Eisuke Sakakibara)在受访时指出,美国联准会(FED)主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)应该不会获得重新任命、叶伦(Janet Yellen)应该会成为下任FED主席。神原认为,柏南克在新任FED主席人选出炉前可能不会收回量化宽松货币政策(QE),叶伦一旦上台短时间内也将会延续受股市投资人欢迎的宽松政策。
神原还提到,即便FED开始收伞,美元兑日圆也不会上扬至105-110、预估将停留在95-105区间。他预期日经225指数迟早会站上15,000点、今年底进一步挑战16,000-17,000点;接下来的目标将是2万点。神原认为日本现行实质企业税过高、主张在未来数年内降至25%的国际标准。他也预估日本公债市场将在未来7-8年内持稳,预期消费税的实施最多仅会让下年度经济成长率降至1%。
CNBC报导,神原英资3月在受访时指出,美元兑日圆若能停留在90-95的话对日本经济是最为有利的,万一升破100的话接下来可能会看到130、届时日本经济将面临不利局面。
美国财长Jacob J. Lew 5月10日在接受CNBC专访时表示,日本应尊重国际间默契、不以汇率作为政策目标。今年迄今,美元兑日圆汇率最高点(103.73)出现在5月22日。假设美元兑日圆在今年底收在103.73、年度涨幅将高达19.6%,至少创1991年以来最大升值幅度。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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