英国经济强劲反弹 英镑5度上涨
关键字：英国经济
追随美国步伐，英国自摆脱衰退后，经济展开强劲反弹的气势也愈加明显，有望逐步望重回创金融海啸前的荣景。
彭博社13日发布最新每月调查指出，48位经济学家平均预估英国今年经济成长率将可达1.3%，优于此前预估的1%，2014年、2015年则再进步至2%与2.4%，为2007年以来最佳表现。
英国央行总裁卡尼(Mark Carney)一再重申以失业指标作为升息的前瞻指引，预判在2016年底失业率降至7%之前都没有升息打算。但受访学者有逾3分之2对此不表赞同，认为失业率并不能真实反映经济表现，而如果经济复苏速度超出预期，央行不升息的承诺将备受挑战。
英国10年期国债(GILT)殖利率盘中跌3个基点至2.92%。不过，日前殖利率曾一度涨至3.05%，创近两年新高，显示投资人早已预期央行升息时间将早于2016年。
另外，景气回升，随之而来的是房地产泡沫风险。经济咨询业者Acadametrics当日公布数据指出，在政府刺激措施带动下，8月份房价月增0.4%至23.38万英镑，创下历史新高。卡尼前日对房市泡沫风险怎仅表示将密切注意。
无论如何，据彭博社统计，1/3受访的投资人、分析师与市场交易员预测，英国将在2015年中期左右调升利率，另外有2/3的受访者认为升息时机将介于现在至2015年底。
英镑近来涨势猛烈，盘中升值0.48%至1英镑兑1.587美元，创7个月新高，且近6个交易日有5度上涨，周线涨幅来到1.54%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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