美联储考虑今年开始减码，美元从四个半月高位回落
周三(8月18日)美元指数变动不大，报93.15，从四个半月高位93.26下滑。美元稍早上涨，因对全球经济的担忧挥之不去，迫使投资者在美元中寻求避险。现货黄金在美联储公布7月政策会议记录后转跌为升，但美元坚挺限制避险资金流入黄金，此前对德尔塔变种病毒传播的担忧推动避险买盘。原油期货价格周三创近3个月来的最低收盘价。尽管美国政府数据显示美国上周原油库存下降超过300万桶，但新冠疫情对能源需求的影响仍令原油价格承压。
美联储会议纪要：FOMC正考虑今年开始减码QE
大多数成员认为在2021年减码QE“可能是适宜的”，但其他几人2022年减码QE才合理。几名联储官员对准备“相对迅速地”减码QE持审慎态度，另外几人认为“未来一段时间”可能都不会减码QE。与会者讨论资产购买，包括朝着FOMC充分就业和物价稳定取得进展。大多数成员认为潜在的减码抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）和减码美国国债是有益的。他们还考虑经济条件满足时如何调整资产购买。部分与会者认为减码QE将取决于经济形势，减码QE的行动与加息的时间点无关。数名联储官员表示，如果新冠肺炎变异毒株在美国的传播情况恶化，他们恐怕会改变（对货币政策的）立场。与会者们感觉近期物价数据可能是暂时性的。
美联储主席认为季度加息合理
美国圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，预计美国通胀将在2022年保持在2.5%上方，我倾向于FOMC在2022年一季度完成减码QE的任务，从而让FOMC有若干选项；FOMC在2022年四季度加息“是合理的”。美国已经朝着实现美联储（维持物价稳定和实现充分就业）取得大量进展。到2022年3月份，预计将看到就业市场恢复至新冠肺炎流行病疫情爆发之前的水平。无需让劳动力市场的强劲程度恢复至疫情之前的水平。美国经济显然已经适应流行病疫情，德尔塔变异毒株的扩散可能并不会阻碍经济的适应能力。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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