美聯儲釋放減碼信號，美元上揚黃金回吐漲幅
周三(8月4日)美元守住漲幅，此前曾迅速從稍早的跌勢中反彈，因市場關注美聯儲副主席克拉裏達的暗示，即美聯儲可能以比普遍預期更快的速度削減對改善的經濟的支持。現貨黃金幾乎回吐日內漲幅，尾盤收報1811.78美元，美元大幅反彈、10年期美債收益率在克拉裏達發表言論後脫離低位，降低了非孽息黃金的吸引力。油價連續第三日下跌，美油、布油均跌超3%，分別刷新近二周低點至67.86美元/桶、70.11美元/桶。
美聯儲副主席克拉裏達：美聯儲可能會在2021年稍晚宣布關于減碼QE的決定。
美聯儲副主席克拉裏達表示：“美債收益率的下跌幅度一直都讓我感到驚訝不已，實際收益率存在一個全球性的下跌現象，收益率走勢可能在一定程度上折射出投資者對新冠肺炎流行病疫情的擔憂情緒。未來數個月，將對美國就業市場有更加清晰的認識。我的基本看法是，美國就業人口增速將在2021年秋季“恢複健康”。充分就業就是就業市場與通脹目標保持一致性。”
預計美聯儲縮減購債規模需要大約8個月時間
在美聯儲減碼信號影響下，大田環球分析師預計美聯儲應該“很快”開始逐步縮減債券購買規模，縮減購債應該很快就會給美聯儲加息增加耐心和靈活性。將在下個月重新評估自己從6月開始的觀點，即2022年加息將是合適的這一觀點。縮減購債可能意味著每月美國國債購買規模減少100億美元，抵押貸款支持證券減少50億美元。將縮減購債決定與利率決定分開看待是“關鍵”的。更快的減碼QE並不意味著美聯儲會更快地加息。質疑美聯儲資産購買計劃的有效性，這不會加快勞動力市場匹配過程。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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