美元漲勢暫歇，避險貨幣多頭初現
周四(5月13日)美元指數跌0.07%至90.72，此前一度下滑0.2%，周三該指數上漲0.7%；10年期美國國債收益率跌至1.657%，市場權衡經濟重新開放迹象和通脹持續更久的風險。不過，彭博美元即期指數3個月隱含波動率觸及4月以來高點後回落。瑞郎、日元等傳統避險貨幣走高，與大宗商品相關的加元下跌。
美元多頭料否極泰來
大田環球分析師預計，美元近期的疲軟不會持續下去，相反美元兌大多數貨幣將走強，相對收益率(而非風險偏好)將繼續成為未來幾年美元的關鍵驅動因素，但與過去幾周相比，它們最終將導緻美元走強；就風險偏好而言，考慮到經濟增長前景樂觀，風險偏好不會進一步減弱，盡管如此，多數衡量全球風險溢價的指標(如股市收益收益率、公司債息差和波動性)目前處于或低于疫情爆發前的水平，因此風險偏好也不會大幅回升，美國疫苗的推廣尤其迅速，財政支持也特別龐大，美國的增長和通脹前景是發達國家中最好的，這最終將帶動美國國債收益率再次開始上升，而且上升速度快于大多數其他國家，將推動美元整體走高。
歐元區疫苗注射前景若轉樂觀，歐元兌瑞郎將上行破位
另外，大田環球分析師還指出，歐元區國家的疫苗注射行動當前正進一步進入正軌，在美國疫苗出口增加的背景下，歐盟仍有望在6月底之前追上此前制定的疫苗注射進度，這對于歐元彙價走勢前景將構成持續利多，尤其，歐元相對于避險貨幣瑞郎的走勢有望因此進一步走高。
該行指出，在本周稍作觸及100日均線的支撐後企穩後，歐元兌瑞郎後市有望進一跟隨市場利多消息走高。本周二的低點1.1927有望成為階段性的底部水平，上方短線目標將重新看向3月份的高位1.1152。
而分析師更指出，一旦歐元區疫情在疫苗的協力下如預期進一步回落，歐洲央行縮減政策寬松力度的時機也將來到，這一消息背景最終將會使歐元進一步走強，最終歐元兌瑞郎彙價將上攻至2018年的高點1.1255，更長期則將上看至1.1325。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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