市场押注刺激措施，美元持续刷新新低
关键词：市场压住刺激措施
12月30日，美元持续下跌至两年多的最低水平，由于美元走弱提振了市场对黄金这一替代资产的需求，加上投资者对疫情所造成的经济影响有较大的担心，也激发了投资者对黄金的避险买盘。
周三增加财政援助的前景将美元推至2018年4月以来最低水平，市场流动性稀薄，交易员在年底轧平汇市仓位。加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场金属衍生品交易员Tai Wong称，美元持续走软帮助黄金稳固涨势，美国两党在纾困案方面的争论以及佐治亚州参议员选举令一些投资者暂时按兵不动。
美国参议院多数党（共和党）领袖麦康奈尔称，参议院不会“受胁迫”而增加救助规模，美国众议院2000美元支票发放的法案不可能在参议院迅速获得通过。不过分析师表示，这只是推迟了不可避免将要发生的事情，拜登政府即将上台，你会预期我们将会看到祭出更多刺激举措的进一步尝试。
未来几周对于黄金市场重新获得上行动力至关重要。传统上，一月份是黄金季节性需求疲软之前的最后一段狂欢时间。在过去的十年中，现货黄金有8年在一月份上涨，只有两年的一月份下跌。这与二、三月份形成鲜明对比，因为在二三月份黄金更多的是下跌。这种季节性走势变化并非没有道理，从11月中旬的排灯节，到圣诞节，再到2月中旬的农历新年，首先在印度，然后在西方，然后在第一大黄金消费国中国，黄金珠宝需求都会大增。
尽管实物黄金市场很少决定价格走势，但是当金融避险需求减弱时，实物市场可以给价格带来重要的支撑。历史表明，黄金在第一季度的后半段很容易遭受严重抛售，这或许是受到了ETF抛盘的带动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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