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疫苗再度提振市场冒险情绪,但德国面临困境

关键词:疫苗再度提振市场冒险情绪

11月16日,欧元对美元出现较大上涨,由于RCEP的签署戴了带动了市场的冒险情绪,同时有消息显示疫苗取得突破性的进展,让市场情绪进一步乐观,但欧元区疫情加剧,德国需考虑更多管制措施。

最新消息显示,MODERNA公司报告称在冰箱温度下可维持稳定,并表示新冠疫苗不需要现场稀释。该公司指出,有望于2021年在全球生产5亿至10亿剂的新冠疫苗,计划向其他全球监管机构提交新冠疫苗以获得授权,计划在未来几周内向美国申请新冠疫苗的紧急使用权。MODERNA疫苗消息传出后,欧元区债券收益率上升,德国10年期国债收益率日内上涨2个基点。

同为欧系货币的英镑兑美元在此前受疫苗研发乐观消息短暂提振后重新走低,1.32关口得而复失,因有欧盟官员发表悲观言论称,当前英国与欧盟进行进一步谈判的时机或已是为时过晚。目前英国与欧盟的脱欧谈判在关键议题上仍然陷入僵局,这也令投资者担心,在距年底大限仅剩六周的状况下,“硬脱欧”这一最糟糕结局是否能真的得以避免。

此外11月15日,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)在东亚合作领导人系列会议期间正式签署。随后发布的RCEP领导人联合声明称,RCEP协定作为一个现代、全面、高水平和互惠的协定,由20个章节组成,涵盖此前东盟与RCEP非东盟国家之间自贸协定所未涉及的领域和纪律。除涉及货物贸易、服务贸易以及投资的具体条款外,RCEP还包括知识产权、电子商务、竞争、中小企业、经济与技术合作和政府采购等章节。

受诸多因素影响欧元兑美元上涨动能可能有限,首先春季和夏季市场积累大量欧元多头头寸,原因是欧盟已朝采取更加协调一致的财政政策迈出新的一步,而且有迹象表明欧洲央行决心消除分裂的言论,但目前欧元头寸已经减少,由于欧洲处在第二轮新冠疫情,四季度经济增长面临二次探底的风险,因此欧元上涨潜力相当有限,尤其是在12月欧洲央行会议之前。


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