美元走软，黄金再度大涨
关键词：黄金再度大涨
11月13日，随着市场对疫苗短期内大规模接种的预期有所减弱，投资者仍希望各国政府和央行能尽快推出新的财政刺激措施，美元指数有所下滑，对黄金的避险价值有了明显提振。
尽管金价走势出现了波折，但之后的走势还不能确定。该行预计明年一季度金价2012美元；二季度1911美元；三季度1848美元；四季度1801美元，全年1893美元/盎司。
在令人鼓舞的冠状病毒疫苗消息公布之后，金价暴跌，10月期美债收益率在11月9日升至八个月高点0.973％，不过目前已经降至约0.89％。
美国银行表示，无论经济状况多好，未来几周10年期美国国债收益率都几乎不可能攀升至1.35％以上。利率策略师Ralph Axel称，在未来几周经济数据和疫情数据“最好的情况下”，10年期国债的收益率最多也只能上升40个基点。
在疫情、财政刺激预期以及未来经济数据最佳结果的情况下，基于市场可以多大程度上对美联储周期进行重新定价，大约0.4个百分点是我们预计的最大升幅。在经济最理想情况下，市场可能会预计2022年1月首次加息。
当前，欧美疫情形势依然严峻，美联储主席鲍威尔对疫苗积极作用持谨慎态度，认为未来经济仍可能面临挑战，引发市场对经济复苏的忧虑，避险情绪回升、美债收益率高位回落，提振了金价。考虑到新一轮财政刺激终将出台，且近期美联储态度偏鸽，均为贵金属价格提供支撑。短期金价或仍有反弹空间，但暂不具备大涨条件，行情可能以宽幅震荡为主，后续建议持续关注各大央行动作、疫情疫苗、大选计票争议动态及拜登政策表态。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.