核心数据超出预期，金价短线回落
关键词：核心数据超出预期
8月28日，美国公布了一系列市场密切关注的重要经济数据，当中7月核心PCE物价指数超出市场预期，7月个人收支小幅高于预期，在数据公布后，现货黄金出现短线回落。
具体数据显示，美国7月PCE物价指数年率实际公布1.0%，预期1.0%，前值0.8%；美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率实际公布1.30%，预期1.2%，前值0.9%。
周四(8月27日)美联储主席鲍威尔正式向外界宣布，将调整原有货币政策框架，引入“平均通胀制”。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表的演讲中公布了这一新战略，称即便通胀率超过美联储2%的目标水平，该央行仍计划将利率维持在近零水平。
这一变化表明，美联储准备容忍比以往更高的通胀水平。新战略的实际影响是美联储可能在很长一段时间后才会考虑加息。这意味着，家庭和企业的借贷利率，比如汽车贷款、住房抵押贷款，以及企业投资贷款等，在未来数年内可能将维持在极低水平。
鲍威尔指出，持续疲软的通胀给经济带来风险。他同时强调，仍然认为货币政策必须具有前瞻性，希望阻止通胀预期下降的周期。如果通货膨胀上升到“高于我们的目标水平”，美联储将“毫不犹豫地采取行动”。
在美国失业率高、补助政策难产的状况下，又有总统大选带来的各种影响，美国人民不敢消费已变成常态，消费者信心备受打击。尤其是美国国会两党对新补助政策争执不下，美国零售市场遭受沉重打击。
经济学家指出，由于美国国会和政府未能就广泛的联邦刺激计划达成协议，美国消费者的现金流将出现一个巨大的“窟窿”。这个“窟窿”如此之大，增加了未来几个月美国消费者支出大幅减少的风险。
分析师指出，目前看来，如果财政刺激到位，美国经济不太可能出现“双底型”衰退。但如果财政刺激久拖不决，消费者收入急剧下降，那么“双底型”衰退可能会变成现实。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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