小非农数据历史最差,但符合市场预期
关键词:小非农数据历史最差
5月6日,美国公布了市场密切关注,且素有小非农支撑的美国ADP就业数据情况,数据大幅减少2036万人,虽然为美国历史上的最差表现,但其表现基本符合预期,数据公布后,现货黄金基本维持稳定。
具体就业分项方面,4月建筑业就业人数减少247.7万人,3月减少1.6万人。4月制造业就业人数减少167.4万人,3月增加0.6万人。4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数减少344万人,3月减少3.7万人。3月金融服务业就业人数减少21.6万人,3月为持平。
ADP月度就业报告衡量的是非农业私营部门就业情况的月度变化。按行业划分,此次疫情中,美国受影响最严重的行业是贸易/运输/公用事业,其次是建筑以及行政和支持服务。休闲服务业,金融服务业就业人数小幅减少。而医疗保健行业仍在招聘。
疫情重创美国经济。此前本周二公布的数据显示,美国4月ISM非制造业PMI为2009年12月以来首次陷入萎缩区间,并跌至2009年3月以来新低。其中数据表明美国服务业的需求和就业指标在4月份跌至历史最低水平。
美国一季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算下滑4.8%,是2008年金融危机以来最大季度收缩规模。据报道,美国二季度经济收缩幅度可能高达40%,创下第二次世界大战以来最高值。
大面积失业的持续时间是关键。美联储主席鲍威尔4月29日在记者会上强调,对个人来说,失业时间越长对个人技能和事业发展的损害越大,意味着重回岗位的困难越大。需要尽力防止出现长期失业的局面,从整体上影响未来美国经济复苏的态势。
美国第三轮2.2万亿美元经济救助计划大幅提升了失业救济的水平,由联邦政府出钱,将领取失业救济的时间延长13周,每周还增加了600美元,最多可以领取到7月份。这种受政策影响选择不工作的人口比例到底有多大,也是反映美国就业形势的一个因素。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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