CPI数据明显走低，更严重还在后面
关键词：CPI数据明显走低
美国在近日公布的3月CPI通胀数据明显走低，3月季调后CPI数据创下近三年以来的i修年底，同时物价持续上涨，经济低米的趋势延续，而美联储目前关注重点为经济增长、就业率和通胀情况，市场分析疫情将对美国经济造成巨大的打击。
美国3月未季调CPI年率录得1.50%，不及预期值0.1个百分点，大幅低于前值的2.3%；3月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.10%，分别不及预期值0.2个百分点，不及前值0.3个百分点。
美联储官员在过去十年中近乎苦口婆心地向市场保证，将核心个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)提高到2%仍然是政策目标。之所以反复强调这一点，是因为物价上行压力一直低于目标。美联储官员关注的重点是经济增长、就业率和通胀水平。
CPI无论年率还是月率，长期平均水平通常较PCE高出0.25-0.5个百分点。在最近的二十多年里，通货膨胀一值都不是美国经济面临的威胁。自2008年金融危机以来，物价下行压力一直在蔓延，经济学家虽然很少预见，但仍普遍担心可能出现通缩。
在当前新冠病毒大流行的背景下，由于大量工作岗位和消费需求遭到破坏，美联储周四还加强了紧急应对措施，推出一项覆盖范围广泛、规模达2.3万亿美元的救助计划，以支持处于抗疫前线的地方政府，并为中小企业纾困。
这是美联储迄今为保护美国经济免受新冠疫情冲击而采取的最大胆的举措。美联储此前已将联邦基金利率区间下限降至零，并启动无限量购债计划，增加美元流动性，以应对现金短缺局面。
最近几周美联储、国会及特朗普政府相继批准了数万亿美元刺激计划，支撑经济“安然”度过疫情并在危机后重启。抗疫期间全球各央行都在努力为经济兜底。
诸多社交疏离举措的实施，导致数百万人面临失业威胁，或者眼见几周前仍然繁盛的商业活动，随着经济停摆而被推到倒闭的边缘。
危机导致的美国经济突然停滞，毁掉的工作岗位数量可能超过450万。到2021年底，这些岗位中将恢复不到200万个，这将使未来21个月的失业率超过6%，对劳动力市场造成巨大冲击。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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