央行利率决议整体偏鸽派预期
关键词：央行利率决议
由于中东地区政治危机有所升级，市场的避险情绪逐渐升温，同时本周三大主要行情都将逐步公布其利率决议，市场普遍预计央行将维持鸽派离场，对金价起到一定的支撑作用。
本周最重要的事情将是三家主要央行做出利率决议：日本央行、加拿大央行和欧洲央行。分析师表示，整体趋势可能会保持鸽派，这对金价有利。
分析师称，黄金市场的人们肯定需要关注其他央行的动向。即使政策不放松，目前也肯定存在一种鸽派情绪，这是支撑价格的一个因素”。进一步趋于鸽派可能进一步提振黄金，重要的是要注意央行声明中可能透露的任何新信息。
市场目前的共识是三大央行将维持其货币政策不变。未来几天全球一些最重要的央行所提供的经济前景，可能为市场增添更多色彩，因投资者确定短期内有多少风险敞口是值得的。
除上述讲到的三大央行外，美联储的动向也将引起人们的注意。过去两个月，美联储通过回购市场向银行体系注入额外流动性的操作，帮助推高了金价，这也令黄金市场受益。美联储自9月以来不仅已注资近3000亿美元，而且最近还指出，至少在4月之前，它“可能会继续向市场注入临时资金，时间比决策者预期的要长”。美联储的这些额外现金注入，帮助金价保持在高于1550美元的长期阻力位之上。
随着美国股市继续创下历史新高，美联储可能会再次转向其国内政策目标，而欧洲央行已经停止进一步降息。欧元区陷入了似乎永无止境的负利率货币政策，这摧毁了其债券市场。
人们普遍希望经济会表现得相当好，这对黄金来说通常不是特别好。人们关注经济，认为它现在运行良好。但这并不意味着这种情况会持续下去。人们一致认为，我们不太可能看到美国经济增长过于强劲。普遍的共识是，除了创纪录的债务，美国可能还会进一步减税，在未来很长一段时间内可能会保持较低的利率。推动金价走强的另一个因素可能是市场对贸易协议的解读。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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