罢免总统行动开始？美国经济衰退不可逆转？
关键词：美国经济衰退
根据外媒报道，在美国总统特朗普遭遇弹劾后，有机构进行了民意调查，结果显示有过半的民众支持众议院弹劾总统特朗普，同时也有更多的受访者表示支持参议院投票去罢免特朗普。
分析师认为，与许多人预测的经济衰退或反弹相反，2020年美国经济和市场最有可能的路径是更加温和的，这可以概括为“1.8”主题。他们认为，在这个展望2020年的季节里，在这个对复杂问题只用一个词来回答的时代里，我们认为明年将被人们记住的是“1.8左右”。这是我们在宏观/基本面背景下的口语化表述，它拥抱均衡，并以央行新采取的务实政策姿态为基础。在可预见的未来，这种政策姿态很可能会得到巩固。
具体而言，美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长和核心通货膨胀率都有望稳定在约1.8%的长期平均水平附近，这意味着美国10年期国债收益率可能徘徊在1.8%左右，处于窄幅波动区间，而美联储政策利率也将保持在1.8%附近。
分析师表示，2020年美国股市面临比往常更大的抛售风险，投资者对经济复苏过于自信。分析师预计，2020年美股回调的概率为50%，而通常情况下的概率一般约为30%。跌幅为10%通常被定义为回调，标普500指数自2018年12月以来尚未出现过这种情况，当时该指数距离迈入熊市–较高点下跌20%–只差毫厘。
以往历史表明，或许还会达到1800美元；制造业处于困境，就业市场接近充分就业之际开始放缓，以及每隔一段时间收益率曲线就会倒挂，这些现象表明美国历史上最长的扩张期几乎将会终结。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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