金价回吐涨幅，经济复苏预期上调
关键词：经济复苏预期
11月18日，金价回吐全部涨幅，因市场看好贸易协议达成预期，有机会结束全球经济增长下的贸易冲突，同时有机构上调了全球股市展望以及经济复苏的预期，对投资者的冒险情绪有一定的助力。
美元指数上周初受到美中接近达成“第一阶段”贸易协议希望的提振，升至一个月高点98.449。但随后美指出现回落，推升金价当周反弹0.63%。
中国商务部新闻发言人高峰上周四(11月14日)称，取消加征关税是中美双方达成协议的重要条件，如果双方达成第一阶段协议，关税的取消幅度应充分体现第一阶段协议的重要性，而其重要性应该由双方共同努力估量，双方正在就此深入讨论。
国际金融协会(IIF)上周五估计，2019年全球债务或将创下逾255万亿美元的纪录高位——按全球77亿人口计算，人均债务接近32500美元。
分析师称:“我们对今年多数时间的股市前景持谨慎看法，然而最近几周情况发生转变。这个改变可能反映出几项因素，我们认为还有发展的余地。”
鉴于美国经济处于增长周期的末端，推动全球经济复苏的力量将主要来自于新兴市场经济体。
不过目前市场普遍认为，全球经济风险依然偏下行，因美国贸易政策不确定性以及处于增长周期末端可能面临的各种挑战，包括企业信用风险。美国大选年也充斥了更大的不确定性。大肆做空黄金须谨慎。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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