恐怖数据超出预期，金价短线下挫
关键词：恐怖数据
7月16日，美国公布了相关的经济数据，其中有“恐怖数据”之称的美国6月零售数据超出预期，但美国6月进口物价指数的表现不及预期。数据公布后，美元指数短线上涨，金价则出现一定下挫。
具体数据显示，美国6月零售销售月率(%)实际公布0.4，预期0.2，前值0.5；美国6月核心零售销售月率实际公布0.4，预期0.1，前值0.5。
机构评论美国零售销售数据指出，美国6月零售销售增长超预期，表明消费者支出强劲，将有助于减轻商业投资疲软对经济造成的打击。
分析师指出，由于家庭购买汽车和其它各种商品，零售销售录得增长；不过5月份的零售销售数据略有下调。继4月和5月稳健增长之后，6月份核心零售销售继续强劲增长，表明第二季度消费者支出大幅增长。
分析师指出，零售销售数据可能对美联储本月进行十年来首次降息的市场预期影响不大；但消费者支出强劲和核心通胀上升的迹象表明，美联储不大可能在7月会议上降息50个基点。
分析师指出，鉴于消费经济的基本面仍然健康，就业、薪资和信心都处于积极水平，尽管国际紧张局势引发的担忧可能使商业信心有所减弱，但零售销售延续美国消费者的乐观情绪。
据CME“美联储观察”显示，联邦基金期货暗示交易者预计美联储在7月30-31日会议中降息50个基点的概率为28.7%，零售销售数据公布前为32.8%。
另外一项数据显示，美国6月进口物价指数月率(%)实际公布-0.9，预期-0.6，前值-0.3；年率实际公布-2，预期-2.3，前值-1.5。
美国进口物价指数降幅为6个月以来最大，主要是因为石油和其他商品的成本下降，这意味着进口通胀仍然低迷。上周数据显示6月美国潜在消费者物价增速加快，生产者物价小幅上升，不过混杂的通胀信息对市场认为美联储将在7月降息的预期影响不大。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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