投票危机暂时解除，欧元多头仍需关注
关键词：欧元多头
虽然欧元兑美元连续四个交易日反弹，但是反弹幅度较低，英国脱欧大臣的辞职也引起了对英国首相的不信任投票传闻不属实，提振风险偏好。但是脱欧协商仍有一低昂困难，而且意大利和欧盟的预算纠纷仍在，欧元反弹较难。
目前市场焦点仍在英国脱欧进展方面，在多名脱欧官员相继辞职后，传闻称英国环境大臣戈夫辞职，不过随后遭到了戈夫的否认。据每日电讯报报道，英国首相府将会在今天或者明天宣布任命新任英国脱欧事务大臣。
此外英国金融时报编辑指出，英国首相府消息人士称，准备发起对英国首相不信任投票的消息不实，这些相对利好的消息略微提振风险偏好，支撑欧元反弹。不过脱欧协商仍艰难，且意大利和欧盟恐因预算计划陷入长期对峙，将为欧元前景带来隐忧。
混乱的英国脱欧对包括欧元区在内的任何地区都没有好处。无协议脱欧可能会削弱欧洲央行使其货币政策正常化的理由。英国脱欧困境已经漫延至境外，英国脱欧这个麻烦未解决，在全球经济一体化的格局下，全球均将受到影响，特别是欧元区。
受英国脱欧影响，欧元区经济疲弱，投资者信心受到打压，欧元区贸易顺差弱于预期，此外无协议脱欧、股指下跌、油价下跌，欧洲央行货币政策正常化的机率有所下降，尽管仍预期欧央行12月将结束购债，但料将被迫降低通胀预期。
近期欧洲央行行长德拉基的讲话确认了该央行结束量化宽松购买的决心，同时也打开了长期内维持低利率的大门。他重申了此前的观点，强调了部分暂时性影响因素的影响可能变得长久，如贸易紧张局势及海外不确定性等。
总而言之，德拉基仍认为内需、强劲的就业市场及投资活动将在未来数月支撑经济复苏；当前预计欧洲央行将转变货币政策立场还为时过早，不过至少德拉基已明确暗示了谈及首次加息时，将维持谨慎立场。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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