欧元区释放经济必须清楚这个拦路石
关键词：欧元区经济增长
美元的走强让欧元连续两个交易日出现下跌，投资者还在消化德国总理默克尔卸任基民盟党且不再竞选总理的消息，加上欧元区的三季度GDP走疲看，意大利危机迹象愈发明显。恐怕会让欧元的上涨充满困难。
稍早公布的欧元区第三季度季调后GDP季率初值上涨0.2%，预期和前值均为上涨0.4%，疲软数据施压本已疲软的欧元，投资者需关注北京时间周二21:00将公布的德国10月CPI年率初值。
欧元区三季度经济成长远低于预期，经济信心持续下滑，因欧元区第三大经济体意大利的危机迹象愈发明显。欧盟统计局在其初步估计中没有提供国家数据，但周二早些时候意大利统计局发布的数据显示，意大利第三季度经济增长已停滞。
虽然欧元暂时忽视近期经济数据的疲软表现，但意大利预算风险仍是反弹的重要拦路虎，欧元区10月PMI数据是个负面因素，但该行认为存在很大可能是暂时性因素造成了这样的疲软表现，但欧元似乎并未受到市场质疑情绪的提振。
考虑到欧洲央行将近期因素的疲软表现归结于“动能不足，而不是衰退的体现”，该行相信欧元将会逐步走稳，不过若未来数据不能提供强劲支撑，意大利预算风险仍将成为欧元上涨的重要拦路虎。
今年年底前，意大利问题将持续限制欧元走势。随着意大利副总理迪·迈耶一面指责欧洲央行行长德拉基，一面又期待欧洲央行帮助稳定意大利债市，意大利将持续和欧洲其他国家对立。
更重要的是，据消息人士透露，接下意大利央行可能会对政府债券收益率升高对意大利银行业的影响发布一份评估报告，而这可能会激发市场的担忧。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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