疲劳小非农止步美元多头，但多头势力仍在
关键词：疲软小非农数据
昨日疲软的美国小非农数据导致美元扩大跌势，逐步跌向驰骋关口，而其中日本国内资本支撑日本央行按兵不动，第四季度仍有希望走出上升趋势，但是需要时刻密切关注全球贸易战风险。
美元兑日元自周三(9月5日)录得的周度高点111.76回撤，终止了此前四个交易日的连涨之势，日内走软似乎缺乏明显的触发因素，可能归咎于美元指数遭到温和卖盘打压。
稍早公布的数据显示，美国至9月1日当周初请失业金人数跌至近49年以来低位，但美国8月ADP就业人数录得增加16.3万人，低于预期的增加20万人，明日公布的8月非农就业人口增幅恐不佳，美元指数一度刷新四个交易日低点至94.92，加速了美元兑日元的跌势。
在全球金融市场出现平静迹象的情况下，美元兑日元多头似乎几未受到提振，不过美债收益率的温和走升似乎限制了汇价的下行空间。
预计四季度美元兑日元将逐步走升，年底将涨至峰值，将9月预期目标调降至114，目前仍未构筑顶部，部分原因是受到日本国内资本流支撑，日本央行料按兵不动直至2020年，与全球其他主要央行逐步正常化货币政策背道而驰。
四季度美元兑日元将在涨至峰值前向突破115，不过不可预测的全球贸易战局势极有可能主导该行对汇价秋季的预期，三季度末目标约为114，年底目标约为112。
周三公布数据显示，美国7月份对中国贸易逆差创纪录新高，关注特朗普最快美国时间周四实施对华2000亿美元商品加征关税措施。美国对华2000亿美元输美商品征税征询公众意见近日结束，绝大多数参与者持反对意见。
针对美国近日可能推进对中国2000亿美元输美商品加征关税，商务部新闻发言人高峰周四表示，如果美方一意孤行，中方将视美方行动采取必要的反制措施。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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