黄金复苏要看美股和美元
关键词：黄金复苏
大田环球贵金属分析师表示，股市或者美元的持续回落，应该会破开黄金被压制的局面，还会打开黄金牛市。同时美联储9月的货币政策会议有可能是推动金价上涨的积极因素之一。
小时表示，黄金复苏的关键因素将是美国股市和美元。金价下跌似乎接近最低点，已经从今年的峰值下跌了15%，但在这次加息周期中依然处于上升轨道，尽管美元贸易加权汇率走强，股市创下历史新高。股市或美元的持续均值回归应该会打开被压制的黄金牛市。
根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具的数据，目前市场认为，美联储9月份再次加息的可能性高达99.8%。
经过预期的美联储9月份加息后应该对金价有利，金价将从约每盎司1165美元的支撑位开始反弹模式。观察黄金ETF在美联储政策收紧周期中的表现，相信金价可能很快就会上涨。
如果现在出现类似的上涨，下个月金价将接近每盎司1600美元。与此相关的是极低的波动性，黄金90日均线创下1999年9月以来最低水平。60日均线则创下1997年以来的最低水平。我们认为，这种情况是不可持续的。波动率的平均逆转通常发生在相反的条件下。在Comex (CME)交易的黄金数据库(2006年)中，净空头头寸创纪录高位是一个额外的风险。
在美元走强和股市上涨的环境下，黄金保持稳定，这表明了看涨的背离。其主要对手的均值回归风险上升，对金价的持续上涨相当有利。
今年4月份，金价飙升至每盎司1400美元附近，彭博美元现货指数和标准普尔500指数均下跌约3%。随着股市和美元的反弹，金价将重回近1200美元的良好支撑位，接近其交易区间的低端。
除此之外，贸易紧张对黄金的负面影响应该会消退。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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