看涨美元势头正盛，警惕特朗普改变风口
关键词：美元涨势
美元指数在上两个交易日连续走软，本周更是从年内新高持续回落。中美重启贸易磋商的消息缓和了市场焦虑，但是特朗普口头打压美元转变为吹嘘强势，显示了当局默认美元走强，没来几个季度的美元在支撑力逐步消退的情况下，上涨势头将丧失。
在中美准备8月下旬重启贸易谈判之际，特朗普在白宫会议上施压中国在谈判中拿出更好的交换条件。
经济数据方面，时段内重点关注美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值，虽然市场参与者们将仍聚焦新兴市场货币表现，仍为当前汇市的主导因素。
分析师称，中美举行贸易磋商消息引发的“冒险”情绪，正在对美元构成压力，促使部分买盘重回因土耳其担忧在本周稍早受到冲击的欧元。
当前看涨美元氛围似乎过浓。在当前看涨情绪极为盛行的情况下，投资者们需警惕可能出现的多头踩踏风险。
当前看涨美元的乐观情绪似乎开始处于极值，过去十二个交易日中，欧元兑美元有十个交易日走软，且期权资本流也暗示非美货币走软的仓位水平处于极值，此外投机持仓报告也显示，杠杆账户已连续七周建立美元投机多仓。
不过在评估货币表现时交投背景总是重要的，虽然4月以来美元表现亮眼，但从较长期来看显得平平，因此2016年底特朗普胜选美国总统以来，美元表现不那么出色，因此有理由对汇价前景维持谨慎立场。
隔夜美国总统特朗普发推称资金正涌入美元，这实属罕见，白宫经济顾问库德洛也指出强势美元是信心的象征，带动美元略微走强。
这体现了今年夏季美国当局对美元态度的转变，降低了干预美元走势的几率，近期市场对美国政府外汇干预的预期渐浓。
不过这也体现了只要美国经济表现繁荣，当局将容忍美元走强，因此未来几个季度在美元所受的支撑逐步减退的情况下，美元上行动能可能逐步丧失。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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