欧元区市场反应预料之中
10月31日欧洲时段公布的欧元区10月CPI略不及预期，第三季度GDP好于预期，9月失业率好于预期；欧元兑美元微跌至1.1625，金价微跌至1274.79美元/盎司；CPI欠佳但GDP及失业率数据靓丽，影响两相抵消；兼之这一数据结果基本符合德拉基在欧银决议后对GDP、通胀和就业趋势的判断，故市场波动温和。
此次公布的CPI数据不及预期，且较前值下降；但GDP和失业率数据均好于预期及前值；两方面因素相互抵消；此外，上周欧洲央行行长德拉基在欧银决议后的新闻发布会上指出，欧元区经济广泛复苏，但预计总体通胀率年末年初之际会下降；此次数据与德拉基的观点趋势基本一致，故欧元短线波幅不大。
欧洲央行上周公布利率决议，维持利率不变，延长资产购买9个月，自明年1月起将购债规模削减至每月300亿欧元；同时，保留在必要情况下提高购债规模或延长期限的选择；这一结果完全符合市场预期，因利好出尽，欧元一度承压回落。
德拉基在随后的新闻发布会上称，QE不会夏然而止；欧元区通胀压力仍旧温和，预计总体通胀率年末年初之际会下降，核心通胀率还没显示出令人信服的上升趋势，但预计在中期内将逐步上升；欧银处于实现通胀目标的有利形势，通胀将出现V型反弹，QE重新校准体现了对欧元区通胀的信心。
德拉基还指出，经济广泛稳定复苏，经济增长风险大致平衡，薪资增速有所提高，就业增长促进了民间消费，有利的融资条件促进了投资，全球经济复苏支持了出口。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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