非农数据为美联储加大底气，英镑难逃厄运
市场预计本周美联储决议料平平无奇，但非农料将强劲回升，进而为美联储加息打入强心剂；与美联储不同，英国央行本周料将进行十年来的首次加息；但英镑涨势恐好景不长，英银决议后，英镑料将面临下行风险。
北京时间周四(11月2日)凌晨将公布美联储利率决议，目前多数机构预计，本周的FOMC会议很可能是平淡无奇的：政策没有变化，声明措辞没有实质的变化，没有定期的新闻发布会，也不会有政策前瞻的更新。
分析师指出：“市场已经在很大程度上消化了12月采取行动的预期，所以真正的关键问题在于市场预期明年会升息多少，如果市场预期的升息幅度更大，那么将可能推动黄金在短期内进一步承压走低。”
一方面，从对通胀前景来说，措辞料将较为谨慎，可能利空美元指数。另一方面，美联储可能释放关于12月可能加息的信号，将利好美元。考虑到市场已经将12月加息的预期计入价格，此次生命中，鸽派信号料将比鹰派信号对市场产生更大影响。
本周五将公布美国非农就业报告，目前彭博调查中值预期显示，非农就业人数将暴增31万人，失业率料持稳于4.2%
上个月公布的非农就业人数下降3.3万人，中断了美国连续7年的就业增长；就业人数下降是由于最近飓风中断了招聘计划，并阻止一些工作人员在调查期间工作。
虽然本周美联储料按兵不动，但英国央行料将会进行十年之内的首次加息；利率期货市场数据显示，英国央行本周加息几率高达86.6%；受该预期影响，英镑兑美元震荡上行至两个交易日高点1.32关口；不过分析师指出，由于市场大比例押注英国央行加息，且英国未来前景不确定性高企，英银决议后，英镑将面临下行风险。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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