美债被弃助美元破百
周一(11月14日)在上周美大选波澜壮阔的行情之后，市场整体陷入调整中，并等待本周重要的美国经济数据和美联储主席耶伦的讲话。特朗普的新政推升通胀的预期继续支撑美元站上100关口；原油方面，随着月底OPEC会议的临近，市场上对于OPEC达成减产协议的希望重燃，这助力油价在连续大跌之后探底回升。
具体市场上，美指升穿100关口至11个月高位，受美国债券收益率升势及特朗普胜选带动的通胀预期推动；金价触及五个半月低位，美元上涨和公债收益率走高施压金价；油价探底回升，OPEC减产希望重燃支撑油自从三个月低位反弹。
美指升穿100关口至11个月高位，受美国债券收益率升势及特朗普胜选带动的通胀预期推动。美联储主席耶伦本周四将在美国国会发表有关美国经济前景的证词。一个月后的周三美联储将召开会议，许多人相信届时美联储将会加息。
美元的这波涨势的核心是预期特朗普执政下不但会增加支出，而且还会对贸易施行更多限制，这两样举措可能会终结持续了十年之久的低通胀现象。
最新芝加哥国际货币市场(IMM)报告显示，过去一个月资产管理公司及杠杆基金的美元多头押注已重建，但仍是去年水准的一半左右，这暗示美元仍然有进一步上涨空间。
周一美联储官员发表公开言论。美联储鹰派官员莱克Lacker周一发表了相对谨慎的言论。他称，现在判断通胀预期升温还言之过早，将美联储政策与特定公式捆绑在一起不可取。扩大财政刺激政策规模会支持美联储的加息可能性。
美联储立场较为中性的官员卡普兰周一发表了升息言论。他称，美联储有望在近期加息。市场正预期美国新政府会实施部分财政刺激措施，这将给予美联储操作空间。收益率上涨尚未影响到美联储政策。我们需要找到加息的机会，相信会看到美国在未来撤出一定幅度的宽松。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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