意大利公投或令欧洲陷入危机
虽然美国总统大选已暂告停歇，不过市场的风波却并未停息，随着意大利公投的日益临近，或将在金融市场再度掀起一股巨浪。
意大利总理伦齐9月26日宣布宪法改革全民公投时间确定为今年的12月4日，此次公投的主要内容涉及削弱参议院权力，减少参议员数量，重新平衡区域权力，使得更多地区置于中央政府的管辖内等。
意大利一直是欧洲最疲软的经济体之一，8月该国失业率为11.4%，债务高达GDP的132.7%，该比例在欧盟成员国中仅次于希腊。此外，大量的银行坏账也已经让意大利的金融体系岌岌可危。目前意大利银行贷款坏账占到了17%，这一比率几乎是美国的10倍。
在IMF最新公布的全球经济展望中，2016年意大利经济增长将不到1%，且至少在未来10年，意大利经济都无法回到2008年金融危机前的水平。而自1999年加入欧元区以来，意大利的经济增长几乎一直都停滞不动。
据IXE民调显示，意大利宪法公投支持率为37%；反对率为40%，对于意大利宪法公投尚有23%的人摇摆不定。
有分析指出，如果修宪公投结果是反对，很可能带动意大利十年期债券收益率创出2015年希腊危机期间的新高（2.5%），同时由于避险需求驱动，德国国债或受追捧，将收益率重新拉回负值区间，将两者间的利差扩大一倍以上。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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