银价短期破位下行调整，产需逆转长期投资看好
周一（8月22日）开市，贵金属延续隔夜大幅下挫势头，白银盘中一度跳水超2%。日线上看，一举击穿前期震荡区间下沿19.20美元/盎司，短期下行走势或将持续。
悲观者或许认为，贵金属牛市已到尽头。不过，从均线结构上看，目前的走势依然只能定性为回调。此外，由于英国公投脱欧之后的一周内，银价出现火箭般蹿升——涨幅逾20%，导致指标乖离过大，技术上存在修复需求，银价后市不排除下测前期颈线位18美元/盎司的可能。
白银是今年所有大宗商品中涨势最强的，主要是受益于全球产生着负收益的债券。在彭博社全球发达国家主权债券指数（Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index）追踪的债务中，有价值约9万亿美元的债券提供着负收益，意味着那些购买并持有债券直到到期的人将忍受损失。
全球各国央行都在削减利率或进行巨幅资产收购，从日本到英国，债券收益率降到了纪录低位。8月8日，英格兰央行重启了国债（金边债券）收购，而印度央行行长拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）声称货币立场保持宽松。收益率不是唯一的驱动因素。白银的表现超过了被称为避险天堂的黄金，因为银产量被预计自2011年来首次下降，而银实体需求则连续四年上涨。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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