中国PPI低迷及美国服务业价格回落打压通胀
关键词：中国PPI低迷及美国服务业价格回落打压通胀
中国国家统计局周四（7月9日）公布的数据显示，中国6月通胀水平低位徘徊，生产者物价指数连续40个月负增长。其中，全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨1.4%，环比0%；全国工业生产者出厂价格同比-4.8%，连续40个月负增长，环比-0.4%。
中金公司近期发布的分析报告预计，受 PPI 趋稳、房地产价格回暖以及低基数效应的带动，下半年整体通胀将温和反弹。但由于农产品价格受油价负面冲击的滞后反应，今年 CPI 很可能维持低位。相比 CPI，PPI 的回升将比较显著。
此外，美国公布的数据显示，通胀前瞻指标，美国6月ISM非制造业指数物价分项由前值55.9下落至53.0。数据表明，美国未来服务业物价由回落可能，这可能削弱通胀水平。
美联储主席耶伦周五的讲话显示，她对美国薪资问题的观点转变，尽管近期薪资指标错综复杂，但耶伦表示，其他一些薪资指标出现了上涨迹象，显示美国薪资水平实际正在接近充分就业。耶伦重申了她认为年内美联储应该加息的观点。
美联储加息预期仍是黄金基本面面临的最大利空因素，但疲软的通胀数据和薪资增速以及放缓的经济扩张表明，美联储首次加息后的紧缩步伐可能较为缓慢。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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