股市变化影响十一月总统大选？这是怎么回事？
距离美国十一月总统大选还有不足90天的时间，虽然市场看似风评浪静，但暗地里早滴波涛汹涌，而且目前是民主党拜登登上总统宝座还是共和党特朗普维持当前地位呢？市场对此都很难下定论，但此时却有数据显示，股市的变化可以大概率地预测最后是谁当上总统，真的是这样吗？
股市是怎样影响总统大选的？
大选前的三个月是关键时刻，根据总统大选周期理论，当7月31日-10月31日股市出现上涨，执政党往往会胜出大选。而当市场出现暴跌，在野党则会获得胜利。
以2016年的大选为例。民调强烈支持当时的执政党候选人希拉里，但市场却出现了不同的表现。在大选日前的三个月里，标普500指数下跌了1.7%。最终，特朗普赢得了入主白宫的机会，自二战以来，这一规律的准确率为72%。截至8月12日，市场自7月31日以来累计上涨逾3%，接近历史高位。根据这一趋势理论，这意味着到目前为止市场预计特朗普还是有可能胜出大选的。
如果拜登当选会有什么影响
如果是特朗普连任，还是政策应该还是会维持当前现状，若是拜登当选，那最大的变化应该就是政策变化了。可以合理预计，赋税将会上升，监管也会变得更加严厉。拜登支持将企业税从目前的21%提高至28%，并对年收入超过100万美元的实体加倍征收资本利得税，从20%提高至惊人的39.6%。
以上这些分析都是建立在相关数据上，但真实情况是怎样的，还需要看市场是怎么分析以及还有没有新消息的影响。所以，未到最后关头，仍未知道定局。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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