美元供应充裕 将对金价利好
关键字：美元供应、伦敦金价格走势
截至2014年7月，年内美联储货币供应同比增幅已达7.7%，远高于2013年的4.75%，同时也略高于2012年的7.65%。美联储正在加紧提高其通胀水平，或许在通胀抬高的同时伦敦金价格虽有加息预期承压，但仍能保持一定的涨势。
M2货币供应速度加快意味着美联储正试图推高通货膨胀，而黄金作为传统的抗通胀资产，这无疑支撑了金价的持续上涨。
市场普遍预期美联储将在2015年下半年左右首次升息。对于多数投资者来说，美联储加息会增加持有黄金的机会成本，因此金价会下跌。
不过根据近十年美国加息后黄金的走势情况来看，加息并不意味着黄金一定会跌，2004年6月30日调升25基点至1.25%，而黄金也从那时起从400美元/盎司左右开启牛市路途。
其实有的时候加息反倒是能证明经济处于蓬勃发展时期，此时的经济活动都以“涨价”为主，贵金属当然不例外。
黄金历来都是抗通胀的重要法宝，中国大妈就是个最好的例子。
每年的通胀率若是在正常范围内变化，那么其对伦敦金行情的波动影响并不大；只有在短期内，物价大幅上升，引起人们恐慌，货币的单位购买力下降，金价才会明显上升。从长期看，黄金仍不失为是对付通货膨胀的重要手段。
美联储内部对于货币政策立场的争议日趋白热化，外界猜测加息日程或将提前。美国费城联储主席普罗索(Charles Plosser)、里奇蒙德联储主席莱克(Jeffrey Lacker)近期纷纷展现强势鹰派姿态，不赞同FOMC在资产购买结束后相当一段时间才首次升息的声明措辞。
不过从短期来看，金价上涨的原因是受到地缘政治危机的刺激，而避险买盘引发的反弹往往是暂时的，因此这类上涨的可持续时间并不长。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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