黄金借贷成本跌13个月低位
关键词：黄金借贷成本
据伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)周四公布的数据显示，日内黄金借贷成本(即一个月黄金租赁利率)已经跌至13个月低位，表明黄金需求，特别是亚洲需求有所放缓。这意味着金价或无法守住当前水平，有进一步下行的可能。
LMBA表示，周四一个月黄金租赁利率跌至0.0243%,为2013年6月19日来的最低水平。今年4月18日该利率曾升至0.2702%的七个月高位。由于美国经济持续改善削弱了避险需求，本周金价有望录得第二周跌幅。据中国黄金协会表示，2014年上半年中国黄金需求下降了19.0%，至569.50吨。其中金条的需求量下跌了62.0%，珠宝中黄金的用量增加了11.0%。
LBMA指出，由于中国目前是亚洲的头号黄金消费国，该国黄金需求及进口下滑也意味着黄金流动性供应增加，打压黄金借贷成本下滑。有分析师指出，“眼下黄金的短期流动性充裕，但这也意味着实物金需求遭到削弱，预计金价将失去这部分的基本面支撑。”
据彭博社数据显示，黄金租赁利率曾在2011年12月触及-0.568%历史低位(当时金价1921.17美元/盎司)，随后在2013年8月反弹至0.3067%的四年多高位(当时金价1180.57美元/盎司)。然而，目前金价已跌破1300美元，但黄金借贷成本却持续走低，这或许意味着金价还有进一步下跌的可能。
周四国际金价一度刷新1287.46美元/盎司的五周低位。继2013年金价暴跌28%后，今年为止已累计反弹7.9%。高盛分析师在周三的报告中重申，随着美国经济复苏加速，黄金2014年底将跌至1050美元/盎司。该行将黄金长期预测提升了13.0%至1200美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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