黄金期权或促使金价下跌
关键词：黄金期权
交易员和分析师们认为，由于有黄金期权将在下周初到期，因此在没有别的重大新闻推动价格变动的情况下，可能Comex 8月期金会朝着1300美元/盎司的水平下落。
据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)数据显示，8月黄金卖权未平仓合约有109099个，买权未平仓合约有192969个。
有交易员说：“1300美元/盎司的水平有很大吸引力。在1300的水平，未平仓合约很多，卖权未平仓合约有9519个而买权未平仓合约有7326个。并且，在这些期权到期之前，并没有重大经济数据会发布。不认为有大的催化因素，可能就会在目前水平或者更接近1300的水平。”
很多市场都会在期权到期前出现这样的状况，但这并不代表到时金价一定就正好在1300的水平。但通常来讲，如果马上期权要到期了，那么其价格就是走势目标。人们会希望在1300买入在1300附近卖出以在到期时平仓。低于1300，那些卖权做多的人就要买期金，而高于1300，那些买权做多的人就要卖期金。所以这是种平衡。
当然，如果在此期间有重大新闻爆出，这就都变成不相关的了。
花旗机构客户集团的期货专家也认为1300的水平有很多未平仓合约，有卖权比买权更多。这可能会为黄金市场带来一点上涨的推动力。卖权通常是那些拥有期货空头头寸的专业交易员用来对冲的，因此，如果这些交易员选择买回自己的买权，那么他们也要买期货，也就带来了上涨的动力。
这样的上涨推动力不一定是持久的，可能一天之内就能上涨15美元。不过他也认为这为市场带来了波动性，而目前最大的未平仓合约是在12月期金合约中。这些因素都考虑进内，目前的市场会限于比较中性的状态。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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