印度6月黄金进口大增
关键词：印度黄金
印度6月黄金进口飙升，印度贸易赤字扩大到11个月高点，而国际原油价格可能进一步使经常帐承压。
周三公布的数据显示，印度6月黄金进口同比大增65.0%，贸易赤字由5月份的112.3亿美元升至117.6亿美元。在印度，黄金是除原油外第二大进口商品，是引发去年印度滑向国际收支危机边缘的一个主要因素。为了削减经常帐赤字，印度去年提高了黄金进口关税，实施了80/20规则。这些措施压缩了供应，推升了印度黄金溢价，并引起走私泛滥。黄金进口的强劲反弹可能意味着限制措施将保持一段时间。
新加坡发展银行经济学家表示，“行业组织一直希望取消黄金进口限制，但高企的贸易赤字可能促使印度政府保持谨慎。”
印度财政部长在新政府第一个财政预算案中出人意料低地持金银进口关税不变。受外围需求提升和弱势货币的影响，印度6月商品出口连续第三个月上升，印度经济前景改善。印度6月出口增加10.22%至264.8亿美元，低于5月增速，但是全球增长改善下的一个转变。
通胀急剧下跌，工业产出强劲反弹，莫迪政府在良好的氛围中开始复苏亚洲第三大经济体。
贸易数据表明商业信心小幅恢复，因投资疲软，国内外需求不振，高通胀引起高利率，过去两年，印度经济增速跌至5.0%下方。在中东局势影响下，原油仍有走高的风险。印度原油进口占到总进口的80.0%，油价上升将增加印度进口总值，扩大贸易逆差。
印度6月原油进口上升了10.90%至133.40亿美元，而5月份的进口量仅增加了2.50%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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