机构预测与黄金走势背道而驰
关键词：黄金走势
各大投资机构依然看跌黄金。大部分的研究报告都指出黄金近期的升势即将结束，而金价上升为投资者提供获利回吐的机会。
然而，黄金市场走势却证明华尔街机构的预测是错的。
虽然美国经济温和复苏，但美联储、日本央行和欧洲央行这全球三大央行在短时间内依然会推行宽松货币政策。
近期市场都在谈论“长期性经济停滞”，即美国长期的经济增长都可能会低于平均增长。哈佛教授兼前任美国财政部长萨默斯在去年便已提及这种现象。此经济理论的重点围绕在微薄的资本投资会阻碍国家全面就业的发展。美国最近一次经济衰退于2009年6月结束。
有传闻指美国的跨国企业坐拥大量现金。公司固定投资下跌，从而也拖累了生产率增长。2003年至2007年美国企业扩张期间，每年的生产率增长约为2.3%。但在过去5年期间，美国的生产率增长平均只有约1.8%。此外，欧洲央行很可能会在今年秋季实行宽松货币政策，部分人甚至认为欧洲央行会直接买债。日本央行依然在推行宽松货币政策，而会否进一步推行宽松货币政策取决于会否再度提高销售税。
目前，各大投资机构预测2014年金价将会下跌，但黄金市场依然按照自己的步伐前进。虽然美国经济将会温和复苏，但全球三大央行表示将会竭力对抗长期性经济停滞。黄金的作用很多，包括避险投资、投资组合更多元化、另类货币以及资本增长投资。现时，黄金升势令华尔街的投资机构大感惊讶，而且黄金的潜在需求也依然强劲。鉴于全球可能面临长期性经济停滞，黄金未来数年都将维持上升。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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